2026 Housing Forecast: Why Next Year Could Be Big for Buyers, Upgraders, and Sellers

If you’ve been watching the housing market closely, here’s some news worth noting: the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) is forecasting a 14% jump in existing-home sales in 2026. (nar.realtor)

Whether you’re buying your first home, upgrading to your dream home, or selling your current property, this forecast has important implications — especially here in the Treasure Valley.

What the Forecast Says

1. Sales Are Set to Rise

NAR projects existing-home sales to increase by roughly 14% in 2026. This suggests the market may see more activity, more options for buyers, and more motivated sellers.

2. Prices Expected to Grow Moderately

Home prices are forecast to increase about 4% nationally, meaning your current home may gain value, but buyers won’t face wild price spikes.

3. Mortgage Rates Could Ease

Rates are projected to average around 6%, slightly lower than recent years. While not a dramatic drop, this could improve affordability and increase purchasing power.

4. Supply May Improve in Certain Areas

Markets with strong new construction may see slightly more inventory — helpful for buyers looking for choices and for sellers aiming to time the market strategically.

What This Means for Different Homeowners

1. First-Time Buyers

• Easier to afford monthly payments if rates ease.

• More homes may be available in growing neighborhoods around Boise, Meridian, and Eagle.

• Planning now could help you secure your first home by 2026 under favorable conditions.

2. Upgraders

• If you’re looking to move into a larger home, sell your current property, or relocate, this forecast suggests a stronger market with active buyers.

• Moderate price increases (+4%) mean your current home could sell for more, giving you additional equity for your next purchase.

• Slightly lower rates could make your monthly payment on a bigger home more manageable.

3. Sellers

• Increased demand may lead to faster sales and competitive offers, particularly in desirable Treasure Valley neighborhoods.

• With first-time buyers still underrepresented, appealing to motivated buyers (including upgraders) will be key.

• Timing is everything: if you’re considering selling, planning now can help you maximize your home’s value in 2026’s forecasted market.

How the Treasure Valley Market Fits In

Locally, the market reflects these national trends but with unique characteristics:

• Boise, Meridian, Eagle, and surrounding areas continue to see strong demand and limited inventory.

• New construction in Meridian and Eagle may provide opportunities for buyers looking for newer homes or upgrades.

• Sellers in well-priced, move-in-ready homes may benefit from competitive offers.

Whether you’re buying, upgrading, or selling, local market knowledge is crucial — and that’s where your real estate team makes a difference.

How to Take Advantage

• Buyers: Start pre-approval, budget for your down payment, and explore neighborhoods where inventory is likely to grow.

• Upgraders: Assess your current home’s value and potential equity. Plan the timing of your sale to align with favorable market conditions.

• Sellers: Consider prepping your home now so it’s ready to list when the market heats up in 2026.

Bottom Line

The NAR forecast points to a more active market in 2026 — and that’s good news for buyers, upgraders, and sellers alike.

• Buyers may find better affordability and increased options.

• Upgraders can leverage equity and slightly lower rates to move into their dream home.

• Sellers can position their homes for quicker sales in a stronger market.

Planning ahead, understanding your options, and partnering with a knowledgeable local team is the key to turning the forecast into opportunity.